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The volatility of 1998, returned with a vengeance in the form of Brazil. The stage set for the market battle of 1999: the U.S. consumer vs. the global economic slowdown. The bullish long-term fixed income outlook at Altamira. Some predictions. Expectations regarding higher rates in the short-term, shaped by a few major events, with explication. The factor of Alan Greenspan. The U.S. consumer as Titan in the U.S. economy. The international front. The introduction of the euro. The long-term view. The events of this week as a test of conditions just outlined. Corporate profits. Merger and acquisition activity. A possible lengthy impeachment trial. Continued pressure on the U.S. dollar and some results. The Canadian content of the world economy and how our fortunes are linked.
The daunting task of having to speak about the prospects for the Canadian stock market at this juncture. Some facts. A question begged. The "new era" theory or "financial asset inflation." What we are currently faced with in the Canadian market. A review of the 1998 action on the TSE. Entering 1999 with confidence bubbling over and why that is so. Three major issues to be addressed if the Canadian market is to put in a credible showing for the remainder of the year: whither the U.S. market; the direction of the world economy in the next 12 to 18 months; corporate profits, with a brief explication of each. Potential negatives with which the Canadian stock market may have to contend. Putting a more positive spin on things. Being realistic. The issue of Y2K. The factor of sentiment or human emotion which has a dramatic impact on stock market valuations in both directions. Some summary remarks.
The speaker's own situation with regard to the financial market. Comments with regard to recent events in the market. Fidelity Investment's philosophy with regard to predictions. Taking a long-term view on the asset classes, but ignoring what is happening short-term at your peril. The speaker's own strategy. Factors affecting the U.S., with illustrative examples. Listening to others. Some U.S. economic facts. Some beliefs about what will happen in Canada. A look at Continental Europe and factors affecting that market. The situation in South-East Asia, and in Japan. The importance of liquidity in determining investment decisions. The speaker's overall view.