Vladimir Putin

Stahl, Frederick A./Bolton, A. Hamilton

The speeches are free of charge but please note that the Empire Club of Canada retains copyright. Neither the speeches themselves nor any part of their content may be used for any purpose other than personal interest or research without the explicit permission of the Empire Club of Canada.

Frederick A. Stahl's analysis of the United States economy. Prospects for the United States economy and the security markets for 1964. Topics addressed include specific detailed projections as to general business; the Gross National Product; Personal and Disposable incomes; a rise in capital spending; Government expenditures; private construction; investment in inventory; corporate profits and dividends; cash flow; the relationship of dividend distributions to cash flow; price structure, wages and productivity; money factors and their relation to the bond market; the balance of payments situation; normal demand factors as related to the availability of funds; the stock market; earning power; projecting the market on the basis of yields; longer term trends; benefits from expansion in population and related demand for housing and consumer products; prospects for a few of the key industries such as automobile, banking, building, chemical, drug, electrical products, food, machinery, oil, steel, cigarette, and utility industries. Mr. Bolton's analysis of the Canadian scene. The speaker's own views on the outlook particularly for the Canadian stock market, which is dependent somewhat for clarity, on the outlook in the United States. The speaker begins with a statement rather than a theory, that stock prices are high. A prediction with regard to a major tax cut in 1964 in the U.S. Implications for Canada and the Canadian stock market from three different directions. Some of the influences (not a comprehensive list) for the Canadian economy: Inventories; Unfilled Orders; New Orders; Monetary East; The Russian Wheat Deal; Canada's Import/Export trade balance improvements. The many divergent problems facing the Canadian stock market, some caused by political actions, some due to economic factors, some structural. The long-run future of the Canadian stock market and its dependence on these factors. Economic factors which produce the level and direction of the stock market. Nothing in the economic outlook immediately ahead in Canada which calls for a major revision downwards in stock prices. Two long-range developments which are structural changes which might mean eventual lower stock prices: the attempt to force repatriation of Canadian equities from abroad (chiefly U.S.) by fiscal measures, and the Quebec type of pension scheme, with a discussion of each. Two areas for constructive action: a major revision of Canada's tax structure coupled with a sharp cut in taxes on medium to higher incomes; a serious look at fiscal measures to increase the demand for equities. The speaker's "reasonably happy" view of the outlook for the Canadian stock market over the balance of the current economic expansion. Keeping in mind an historical fact. Some concern as to the longer-range future of Canadian equities, and to what that is due. A series of questions to consider. Looking through the veil of today's uncertainties in order to take advantage of what may well be the outstanding investment bargains of tomorrow.

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