Bratt, Nicholas; Shaunessy, Terry; Rubin, Jeff
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The outlook for global markets. 1997 as a particularly challenging year, and why that was so. Some specific indicators and developments which will determine the performance of the stock markets. Some historical figures. Key indicators: the level of confidence; the evolution of the Asian crisis; the outlook for corporate profits; the behaviour of mutual fund investors; the trend in interest rates; the U.S. dollar. European markets. Constructive views, and four major reasons for them. A few comments about the Asian markets. The types of policy steps that would be the triggers that point us in the direction of which markets to emphasise and which markets to avoid.
Some thoughts on the Canadian equity market for 1998. The speaker's preparation for this speech, and his conclusion. The downward trend in interest rates as the biggest single influence on the equity markets. The downside of a benign interest-rate environment. A predication about the TSE. Four major sectors of the Canadian market, and some comments on each. Commodity prices and Asia. Resource stocks. The potential of the market now and two years ago.
One thing crystal clear amidst all of the uncertainty and volatility of the last two months. The equity market and the bond market - some comments about each. Some warning comments to Americans. The U.S. economy. Asian economies and their effect on U.S. interest rates, and their opposite effect on Canadian rates. Monetary policy in Canada. Consequences of increases in interest rates on growth. The Bank of Canada's actions. What the Reserve Bank of Australia has done. What happens when commodity prices collapse in resource-based economies like Canada, Australia and New Zealand, and what the response should be. The domestic debt market. The important choice that the Bank of Canada faces, and consequences of that choice.